High-resolution numerical simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003) over North Carolina

Two numerical simulations were performed to study the ability of a high-resolution mesoscale model to predict the track and structure of Hurricane Isabel over North Carolina. One simulation (Control) used standard NCEP climatologically-based sea surface temperature (SST) data for the lower boundary condition while another simulation (Experimental) prescribed real-time high-resolution SST data for the lower boundary. Results from this study show that both simulations predict the track of Isabel over North Carolina reasonably well, although the track predicted by the experimental simulation agrees more closely with observations. The experimental simulation more closely agrees with observations of the intensity of Isabel and the amount and spatial distribution of precipitation. These results reinforce the importance of accurate high-resolution SST data on numerical simulations of tropical cyclones.